Product · Explore the futureOne decision.
One decision.
Several possible futures.
Run the same population through several scenarios and observe how behaviors, opinions, and balances evolve over time.
Today100 000individus
Decision
- Scenario AKeep the decision« proteste »
- Scenario BChange the decision« hesitates »
- Scenario CWithdraw« accepte »
Dynamics
A decision never produces a single effect.
One reaction triggers another. Behaviours change, the environment adapts and the population evolves until a new equilibrium emerges.
- TodayDecision
- Price increase +8%
- ReactionDirect effects
- Perceived unfairness
- Reduced consumption
- Search for alternatives
- PropagationIndirect effects
- Word of mouth
- Comparison
- Brand switching
- AdaptationSystemic effects
- Shift in usage
- Competitor response
- + 3 ansNew equilibrium
- Evolution of trust
We do not produce a point prediction. We simulate a trajectory.
Counterfactual
What if you had decided otherwise?
T0The same population
Scenario AKeep the decision
- T0Same population
- T+1First divergence
- T+3Final population
Scenario BChange the decision
- T0Same population
- T+1First divergence
- T+3Final population
- Acceptability41 %67 %
- Strong opposition32 %14 %
- Trust−8 pts+3 pts
Experiment · Tax policy
How can a carbon tax on fuel be introduced without triggering a social crisis?
Starting point
Scenario AFlat taxSame amount for everyone, with no compensation.
Scenario BTax + redistributionFlat national rebate.
Scenario CTax + geographically targeted redistributionRebate calibrated by area and constrained use.
Mass rejection« proteste »
Partial acceptance« hesitates »
Stabilized acceptability« accepte »
What individuals say
« I am not refusing to pay. I am refusing to pay without anyone having asked me anything. »
Karim B.
« As long as the compensation remains abstract, it does not compensate me for anything. »
Hélène R.
« If the rebate is visible in my local area, the measure becomes acceptable. »
Malik T.
The rejection is not only about taxation.
It is linked to a feeling of political exclusion.
The chosen design changed the perceived governance of the tax, not its amount.
Acceptability41 %
Selected scenario67 %
Decision memory
- 2026
- 2027
- 2028
- Replay
The population is preserved. The scenario can be replayed when reality changes.
TodayOne population
- Future A« quitte »
- Future B
- Future C« recommande »
The future is not a line.
It is a space to explore.
