SOCIAL PROGRAMS
Anticipate non-take-up
before rollout.
Local authorities, national schemes, foundations and associations, corporate inclusion programs: test the design and take-up of your programs on coherent populations of the targeted groups, before rollout or redesign.
THE THESIS — CARDINAL PROMISE
A social program isn't judged on its design. It's judged on what happens in a beneficiary's household, in the silence of a dropout, in the fatigue of a working poor person: when the program arrives.
Our system lets you see what will really happen.
CASE STUDY, DEPARTMENT, RSA PROGRAM REDESIGN
“ How do you redesign the RSA (minimum income) support pathway toward greater contractualization without increasing non-take-up among the most vulnerable groups? ”
Simulated on 340,000 households of the department's beneficiaries · 21 profiles of relationship to the institutional program · 8 contractualization scenarios tested
The department faces a national political mandate: strengthen RSA contractualization (15 to 20 hours of weekly activity, engagement contract, sanctions for non-compliance). The principle is set. What remains is designing a support pathway that maximizes effective integration without amplifying non-take-up among the most vulnerable groups: isolated beneficiaries in rural areas, single parents with young children, people in psychological distress, young people leaving foster care.
The project team has 8 contractualization scenarios (flexible / rigid contract, graduated / immediate sanctions, in-person / hybrid support, single / shared caseworker). The steering committee must decide within 3 months. The risk: reproducing elsewhere the errors already observed in territorial pilots: non-take-up jumping from 12% to 34%, deterioration of the institutional relationship, mass administrative terminations of the most fragile groups.
What the system revealed
Rigid contractualization increases non-take-up by +22 pts among vulnerable groups.
The 3 most vulnerable typologies (isolated rural residents, young single parents, people in psychological distress) react to rigidification by actively withdrawing from the program: missed appointments, unopened mail, administrative termination. The flexible contractualization pathway + hybrid support preserves their institutional connection, a sine qua non condition for any return to employment.
A single caseworker beats a shared caseworker by +34 pts of buy-in.
Beneficiaries don't reject contractualization as a principle. They reject the perceived inhumanity of the process: switching from one caseworker to another, re-explaining their situation every month, feeling like a file. A single caseworker over 12 months, even if less experienced, achieves higher buy-in than an expert but rotating caseworker. Relational stability outweighs technical expertise.
Graduated sanctions are perceived, immediate sanctions are denied.
Counterintuitively, a graduated sanctions regime (warning, partial suspension, full suspension) functions as an accountability mechanism. An immediate sanctions regime triggers a cognitive withdrawal: beneficiaries stop believing they can change their situation and psychologically disengage from the program. The return-to-employment rate drops by 8 pts over 24 months.
What Imagine All The People did that no one else could have done
Our system surveyed 4,200 synthetic beneficiaries across 14 typologies of social situations, tested 8 contractualization scenarios paired with 12 support schemes in variable combinations, and projected integration and non-take-up trajectories over the 36 months following rollout. The "flexible contract + single caseworker + graduated sanctions + hybrid support" strategy dominates 6 of the 8 technical scenarios.
No classic social evaluation reaches 4,200 profiles before rollout. No user consultation can test 12 support schemes. No statistical model can project the interplay between non-take-up and integration trajectories over 36 months.
- NON-TAKE-UP AMONG VULNERABLE GROUPS
- 34% → 12%with recommended strategy
- RETURN TO EMPLOYMENT AT 24 MONTHS
- +11 ptsvs rigid contractualization
- NON-TAKE-UP COST AVOIDED
- EUR 8 million / yearbetter-used funding + downstream savings
APPLICATIONS
Three uses for social programs.
Design & redesign of programs
Test the design of a new program or the redesign of an existing one before rollout. Identify the groups who take it up, those who drop off, and the parameters that determine real adoption.
Accessibility & tackling non-take-up
Simulate different strategies for accessing entitlements: administrative simplification, automation, proactive outreach, mediation. Anticipate real take-up gains by group typology, identify differentiated levers based on vulnerabilities.
Ex ante evaluation of social policy
Model the likely effects of a structural reform before implementation: changes to benefit scales, converting a categorical benefit into a universal one, redesigning part of the social protection system. Inform the political decision with granular behavioral projections.
METHODS
Three ways to test a decision.
Comparing what a synthetic-population simulation brings against existing methods.
| AI PERSONAS | TRADITIONAL SURVEYS | IMAGINE ALL THE PEOPLE |
|---|---|---|
| SCALE | ||
| 5 to 10 fixed personas | 500 to 2,000 respondents | Up to 10 million coherent individuals |
| DYNAMICS | ||
| Frozen characteristics | Pre-written questions, static answers | Agents that ask, probe and brainstorm |
| TIME HORIZON | ||
| Assumed current state | Snapshot of the present | Projection of future consequences |
| DEPTH | ||
| One synthetic answer | Aggregated statistical tables | Individual dialogue + collective analysis |
| DATA & SOVEREIGNTY | ||
| Limited demographic data · US public cloud | Personal data collected at scale · Public cloud | Zero personal data · Infrastructure in France · On-premise possible |
OTHER CASES
Three other decisions tested in this sector.
DEPARTMENT: YOUNG PEOPLE LEAVING FOSTER CARE
"How do you design a support program for young people leaving foster care that prevents a breakdown at age 21?"
Case run for a French department facing the design of a dedicated support program for young people leaving foster care. Simulated on 4,800 young people affected annually, 12 profiles of exit trajectories, 5 support configurations tested, projection over 60 months post-exit.
Our system identified that the structurally most decisive variable for the trajectory at 60 months wasn't the level of financial benefits allocated, but the presence of a stable relational anchor: an adult identified as a long-term point of contact, available in times of difficulty, engaged beyond professional obligations. A program with a structurally organized relational anchor (formalized volunteer mentoring) reduces the risk of breakdown at 60 months by 42 pts, independent of the level of financial benefits.
- RATE OF HOMELESSNESS EPISODES AT 24 MONTHS
- 34% → 11%
- STABLE HOUSING ACCESS AT 6 MONTHS
- 84%
DEPARTMENT: APA (ELDERLY CARE ALLOWANCE) REDESIGN
"How do you redesign the departmental APA program to preserve at-home care under budget constraints?"
Case run for a French departmental council facing the redesign of its personalized autonomy allowance program. Simulated on 28,000 beneficiaries of at-home APA, 11 profiles of dependency trajectories, 6 redesign configurations tested, projection over 36 months of at-home care and departmental spending.
Our system identified that revising the allowance caps generates a budget saving limited to 4% over 36 months, but accelerates the shift to nursing homes by 22%: the consolidated downstream cost for the department ultimately increases. A strengthened upstream prevention program (remote assistance, home adaptation, fall-prevention workshops, isolation-reduction scheme) generates a net budget saving of 18% over 36 months, driven by slowing the shift to nursing homes.
- HOME ADAPTATION AT 24 MONTHS
- 22% → 74%
- ANTICIPATED SHIFT TO NURSING HOMES
- −18%
FAMILY BENEFITS AGENCY: DIGITAL ACCESS-TO-RIGHTS PLATFORM
"How do you roll out a digital access-to-rights platform without widening non-take-up among the most fragile groups?"
Case run for a French departmental family benefits agency facing the rollout of a unified digital access-to-rights platform. Simulated on 340,000 current and potential beneficiaries, 14 profiles of relationship to administrative digital tools, 5 rollout configurations tested, projection over 24 months post-rollout.
Our system identified a structural dynamic of digital administrative rollouts: in the first 12 months, the take-up rate among digitally autonomous groups rises quickly (+18 pts), while the take-up rate among fragile groups stagnates or declines. The take-up gap between groups widens structurally in this window, regardless of the platform's intrinsic quality. A dedicated support scheme for fragile groups, deployed simultaneously with the platform launch, is the only mechanism that prevents this widening.
- OVERALL TAKE-UP RATE OF ENTITLEMENTS
- +14 pts
- TAKE-UP RATE AMONG FRAGILE GROUPS
- +8 pts
METHOD — SOCIAL PROGRAMS
A fifteen-minute study.
How a test runs on our system, from the brief to the delivered study.
1
You formulate your decision
A question in plain language, phrased the way you would phrase it in the executive committee. No formalism required.
2
The system builds the populations
Target segments are reconstructed from public aggregates and industry data. No personally identifying data enters the system.
3
The agents interview, discuss, brainstorm
The system runs the interviews itself, probes friction points, and proposes alternative scenarios you had not considered.
4
You explore the study
You talk with individual voices, challenge the reasoning, change the decision and watch the impact in real time.
Your next decision
Which decision do you want to explore?
Describe your need. We can point you to the right level of support.
