URBAN PLANNING & MOBILITY
Test the city
before you transform it.
Metropolitan authorities, development companies, transport operators, infrastructure managers: test your development projects, mobility transformations and urban policies on coherent populations of residents, users and shopkeepers, before implementation.
THE THESIS — CARDINAL PROMISE
An urban decision is never neutral. It alters circuits, values, uses, the bodies that inhabit the space: often differently from what the technical models predicted.
We let you see these changes before they become irreversible.
CASE STUDY, METROPOLITAN AREA, TRAMWAY CORRIDOR
“ How do you build a tramway along a historic shopping street without driving away the local shops that give the neighborhood its soul? ”
Simulated on 840,000 residents and users of the target corridor · 19 typologies of relationship to local retail · 7 scenarios of construction phasing and compensation tested
The project is structural for the metropolitan area: 8 km of tramway, EUR 240 million in investment, opening up two struggling neighborhoods. But the historic street in question is home to 340 local shops, 60% of which are independent operators with fragile cash flow. Construction will last 24 months. The local authority had seen, in another French metropolitan area, a 40% commercial bloodletting during the works of a similar project: a third of which never recovered.
The question put to the project team: how should the works be phased, how should shops be compensated, how should customers be informed: in order to maintain the corridor's economic viability during and after construction?
What the system revealed
The real risk is not the construction, it is the perception of abandonment.
Customers do not flee shops because of the technical works (barriers, dust, noise). They flee because the neighborhood sends the signal that “it's no longer worth going there.” Active signage of the “shops are open” type, combined with monthly micro-events in the corridor, reduces the flight rate from 40% to 12%: without changing the technical phasing.
Phasing determines 70% of commercial survival.
Phasing in short 3-month segments (a maximum 12-week commercial impact on each shop) preserves 78% of independent shops. Phasing in large 8-month segments leads to the disappearance of 34% of independent shops: cash flow does not hold beyond 4 months without customer traffic. The technical choice is not socially neutral.
Younger shops are more resilient than long-established ones.
Counter-intuitively, shops established for more than 20 years are the most fragile in the face of construction: an older customer base that shifts to other neighborhoods, owners nearing retirement who seize the opportunity. Shops established for less than 5 years (urban concepts, new-generation food service) hold up better. A compensation plan that prioritizes long-established shops has a lasting impact; a uniform plan protects newer shops that did not need it.
What Imagine All The People did that no one else could have done
Our system interviewed 2,800 synthetic residents, customers and shopkeepers across the 19 typologies identified, tested 7 phasing scenarios combined with 11 compensation and communication measures in variable combinations, and projected commercial footfall trajectories over the 36 months of construction and post-construction. The “short-segment phasing + active signage + targeted compensation for long-established shops” strategy dominates 6 of the 7 technical scenarios.
No traditional mobility survey can simulate 11 compensation measures. No legally required public consultation reaches 2,800 profiles before the decision. No traffic model measures the perception of commercial abandonment.
- INDEPENDENT SHOPS PRESERVED
- 60% → 82%with the recommended strategy
- FOOTFALL 12 MONTHS POST-CONSTRUCTION
- +18 ptsvs comparable corridor
- POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC COST AVOIDED
- EUR 8 millionequivalent rescue aid
APPLICATIONS
Three uses for urban planning and mobility.
Structural development
Test a new neighborhood project, a public square redesign, the transformation of a historic street. Anticipate residential, commercial and social shifts: before construction makes the decision irreversible.
Mobility transformation
Simulate a tramway line, a low-emission zone, a pedestrianization plan, a bike plan. Measure real modal shifts, friction by user segment, effects on local businesses: beyond traffic models.
Urban policy & public service
Anticipate reactions to parking pricing, a new urban service, a local regulation (Airbnb, advertising, opening hours). Identify the audiences who embrace it, those who work around it, those who shift politically.
METHODS
Three ways to test a decision.
Comparing what a synthetic-population simulation brings against existing methods.
| AI PERSONAS | TRADITIONAL SURVEYS | IMAGINE ALL THE PEOPLE |
|---|---|---|
| SCALE | ||
| 5 to 10 fixed personas | 500 to 2,000 respondents | Up to 10 million coherent individuals |
| DYNAMICS | ||
| Frozen characteristics | Pre-written questions, static answers | Agents that ask, probe and brainstorm |
| TIME HORIZON | ||
| Assumed current state | Snapshot of the present | Projection of future consequences |
| DEPTH | ||
| One synthetic answer | Aggregated statistical tables | Individual dialogue + collective analysis |
| DATA & SOVEREIGNTY | ||
| Limited demographic data · US public cloud | Personal data collected at scale · Public cloud | Zero personal data · Infrastructure in France · On-premise possible |
OTHER CASES
Three other decisions tested in the sector.
METROPOLITAN AREA: HISTORIC CENTER PEDESTRIANIZATION
“How do you pedestrianize a historic center without driving away downtown residents?”
Case executed for a French metropolitan area facing an extensive pedestrianization project in its historic center. Simulated on 420,000 residents and workers in the metropolitan core and inner suburbs, 16 profiles of relationship to downtown, 5 configurations of perimeter and sequencing tested, projection over 36 months post-announcement.
Our system found that 71% of historic-center residents support the principle of pedestrianization. What they reject is the loss of vehicle access for their own residential needs: bulky grocery deliveries, occasional family mobility, access for home services. Full pedestrianization with no residential exemption generates 34% acceptance and a 5-year intention-to-leave rate of 18%. Pedestrianization with a calibrated residential exemption scheme (vehicle access badge for residents, regulated delivery hours, preserved resident parking) generates 76% acceptance and a 5-year intention-to-leave rate of 3%.
- ACCEPTANCE AMONG DOWNTOWN RESIDENTS
- 34% → 68%
- 5-YEAR INTENTION TO LEAVE
- 18% → 4%
DEVELOPER: NEW MIXED-USE NEIGHBORHOOD
“How do you design a new mixed-use neighborhood on a former industrial site so social mix holds for 10 years?”
Case executed for a French developer facing a new mixed-use neighborhood project on 24 hectares of redeveloped industrial brownfield. Simulated on 1.4 million residents and workers in the metropolitan catchment area, 18 profiles of relationship to social mix, 6 configurations of urban programming tested, projection over a 120-month settlement trajectory.
Our system identified a structural dynamic: the initial social mix of a new neighborhood erodes if public amenities (schools, sports facilities, green spaces, security provisions) are sized strictly to the expected programming. Higher-income households, the first able to choose where they live, leave the neighborhood as soon as the perceived quality of amenities declines. Sizing public amenities to the standard of the metropolitan area's more affluent neighborhoods, independent of the neighborhood's social programming, reverses this dynamic: higher-income households stay, and the social mix holds.
- EFFECTIVE MIX AT 48 MONTHS
- 30/20/50
- HIGHER-INCOME HOUSEHOLD EXODUS AT 48 MONTHS
- none
MID-SIZE CITY: PAID PARKING OVERHAUL
“How do you overhaul a mid-size city's paid parking system without harming downtown commercial vitality?”
Case executed for a mid-size French city facing an overhaul of its paid parking policy. Simulated on 180,000 residents and workers in the urban area, 13 profiles of relationship to parking, 5 pricing configurations tested, projection over 18 months of commercial impact and political perception.
Our system identified a counter-intuitive dynamic: zone-based price modulation (reduced rate in the shopping district) achieves limited commercial preservation: potential customers forgo the quick shopping trip regardless of the rate, anticipating the hassle of paying. A first-half-hour-free scheme (across the entire paid perimeter, with payment beyond that) preserves commercial vitality significantly better: it symbolically validates the legitimacy of the quick trip and removes the entry friction of the paid system.
- DOWNTOWN COMMERCIAL FOOTFALL
- +6%
- BUDGETARY YIELD
- EUR 2.4 million
METHOD — URBAN PLANNING & MOBILITY
A fifteen-minute study.
How a test runs on our system, from the brief to the delivered study.
1
You formulate your decision
A question in plain language, phrased the way you would phrase it in the executive committee. No formalism required.
2
The system builds the populations
Target segments are reconstructed from public aggregates and industry data. No personally identifying data enters the system.
3
The agents interview, discuss, brainstorm
The system runs the interviews itself, probes friction points, and proposes alternative scenarios you had not considered.
4
You explore the study
You talk with individual voices, challenge the reasoning, change the decision and watch the impact in real time.
Your next decision
Which decision do you want to explore?
Describe your need. We can point you to the right level of support.
