LAUNCH
Test what will make people adopt — or reject — what you are about to launch.
A launch is never only a question of appeal. You need to understand who adopts first, who hesitates, who rejects, which signals accelerate diffusion, and which frictions appear once the initial intention fades.
- 01PROPOSITION
- 02EARLY ADOPTERS
- 03REACTIONS
- 04DIFFUSION
- 05ADOPTION
- 06TRAJECTORY
02 — WHAT THIS DECISION ACTUALLY CHANGES
What actually moves.
A launch reshuffles the order of existing choices before it creates any new usage: it is compared, substituted, postponed.
Day-one stated intention says almost nothing about the trajectory: what matters is what survives the first real friction.
Diffusion depends less on exposure volume than on the perceived legitimacy of whoever is launching.
03 — WHAT MUST BE SIMULATED
What must be simulated.
- The gap between initial intention and actual adoption
- The order in which populations enter: who tries, who waits, who refuses
- The effect of the sender's legitimacy on how the proposition is received
- Post-intention frictions: price, effort, habit, social circle
- The populations able to block or carry the diffusion
04 — POPULATIONS CONCERNED
Populations concerned.
- Early adopters, motivated by novelty itself
- The cautious majority, waiting for a trust signal
- Long-standing audiences, attached to the existing offer
- Prescribers and intermediaries who decide on behalf of others
- Constrained populations: limits of budget, access or usage
05 — MECHANISMS TO OBSERVE
Mechanisms to observe.
- Legitimacy of the sender
- Comparison with the offer already in place
- Peer influence and prescription
- Entry friction and cost of trying
- Silent drop-off after the first trial
06 — EXAMPLE QUESTIONS TO TEST
Questions to test.
- “What happens if we launch this offer?”
- “Who will adopt first?”
- “Which population can block diffusion?”
- “Which signal makes the launch credible?”
These formulations are examples of testable decisions. They do not report on any executed simulation.
07 — REAL CASE STUDIES
Decisions already tested.
- MAJOR BRANDSHow do you launch a men's skincare range without being seen as opportunistic by young men?1.2M men aged 25–45 · 14 profiles · 24 months
- FINANCIAL SERVICES“ How can an instant-credit offer be launched without being perceived as predatory? ”800,000 customers · 18 financial-behavior segments · 12 months
- HEALTHCARE“ How can a new hypertension treatment be launched without being perceived as “ one more pill ”? ”1.8M treated patients · 22 profiles · 18 months
- SOCIAL PROGRAMS“How can a digital benefits-access platform be deployed without increasing non-take-up among the most vulnerable groups?”340,000 potential beneficiaries · 14 profiles · 24 months
- CREATIVE INDUSTRIESHow do you launch an emerging artist's second album across 6 European markets without squandering the credibility built by the first?620,000 listeners · 5 release strategies · 24 weeks
- CREATIVE INDUSTRIESHow do you calibrate the global campaign for a cinema blockbuster across 12 distinct cultural markets?12 cultural markets · differentiated narrative entry points
08 — HOW IMAGINE ALL THE PEOPLE SIMULATES
The method applied to this decision.
- Building a synthetic population consistent with the scope concerned.
- Exposing each profile to the proposition, in its real decision context.
- Comparing several wordings, prices, channels or launch sequences.
- Projecting the adoption trajectory beyond the initial reaction.
Explore another decision
- PriceUnderstand what a price change actually transforms in people's behaviour.
- RepositionChange perception without destroying the value that was already there.
- TransformChange an existing system without triggering the side effects that cancel out the expected benefit.
- ReformTest a new rule on the populations that will actually have to live with it.
- ArbitrateCompare several possible futures before making a decision that is hard to reverse.
- AnticipateExplore what can happen when behaviours evolve over time.
- ReactTest a response when time, trust and cascading reactions become critical.
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