PRICE
A price does not only change what people pay. It changes what they do.
A price is interpreted before it is paid. It says something about value, about the intention of whoever sets it, and about the room left for those who cannot keep up. That interpretation is what produces behaviour.
- 01PRICE
- 02INTERPRETATION
- 03ADAPTATION
- 04BEHAVIOUR
- 05FUTURE VALUE
02 — WHAT THIS DECISION ACTUALLY CHANGES
What actually moves.
A price change redistributes effort across populations that do not have the same capacity to absorb it.
The dominant reaction is rarely departure: it is adjustment — reduced usage, postponement, substitution, workaround.
The justification given for the price shifts acceptability as much as the amount itself.
03 — WHAT MUST BE SIMULATED
What must be simulated.
- The threshold at which behaviour changes, and for whom
- The split between departure, reduced usage, postponement and adaptation
- The effect of the justification and of the announcement timing
- The perceived fairness between unequally exposed populations
- The delayed effect on perceived value and on the future relationship
04 — POPULATIONS CONCERNED
Populations concerned.
- Captive customers or users, with no accessible alternative
- Price-sensitive populations that remain highly dependent on the usage
- Comparison-driven, mobile audiences ready to substitute
- Populations for whom the increase is absorbable without trade-offs
05 — MECHANISMS TO OBSERVE
Mechanisms to observe.
- Acceptability and perceived fairness
- Comparison and substitution
- Churn, reduced usage, postponement
- Adaptation and workaround
- Trust in whoever sets the price
06 — EXAMPLE QUESTIONS TO TEST
Questions to test.
- “How far can we raise the price?”
- “Who stays, who cuts back, who leaves?”
- “Which justification changes acceptability?”
- “Which workaround behaviours appear?”
These formulations are examples of testable decisions. They do not report on any executed simulation.
07 — REAL CASE STUDIES
Decisions already tested.
- RETAIL“How can return fees be introduced without harming e-commerce conversion or customer satisfaction?”1.8M e-commerce customers · 13 profiles · 12 months
- ENERGY & UTILITIES“How can a significant price increase be announced to retail customers without triggering massive churn to competitors?”2.4M individual customers · 5 strategies · 18 months
- URBAN PLANNING & MOBILITY“How can a mid-sized city's paid-parking system be redesigned without harming downtown commercial vitality?”180,000 residents and workers · 13 profiles · 18 months
- PUBLIC POLICYHow do you introduce progressive carbon taxation on fuel without triggering another social crisis?8.2M French workers · multi-year trajectory
08 — HOW IMAGINE ALL THE PEOPLE SIMULATES
The method applied to this decision.
- Exposing a synthetic population to several price levels and justifications.
- Observing adaptation behaviours, not only stated intentions.
- Comparing several pricing trajectories on the same population.
- Projecting the effect on the relationship and on future value.
Explore another decision
- LaunchTest what will drive adoption — or rejection — of something new.
- RepositionChange perception without destroying the value that was already there.
- TransformChange an existing system without triggering the side effects that cancel out the expected benefit.
- ReformTest a new rule on the populations that will actually have to live with it.
- ArbitrateCompare several possible futures before making a decision that is hard to reverse.
- AnticipateExplore what can happen when behaviours evolve over time.
- ReactTest a response when time, trust and cascading reactions become critical.
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