ANTICIPATE
Simulate what can happen after the decision — not only the day-one reaction.
The initial reaction is weak information. What matters is how it deforms: memory of previous episodes, signal events, cascades, threshold effects and tipping points.
- 01T0
- 02T1
- 03T2
- 04POSSIBLE TIPPING POINT
- 05FUTURE
02 — WHAT THIS DECISION ACTUALLY CHANGES
What actually moves.
Behaviours recompose over time: initial support erodes, initial opposition becomes ordinary.
An external event can reactivate an old memory and reshape an already stabilised trajectory.
Tipping points are rarely gradual: they occur when a threshold is crossed in a specific population.
03 — WHAT MUST BE SIMULATED
What must be simulated.
- How adoption or opposition evolves over time
- The signal events capable of redirecting the trajectory
- Threshold effects and the populations that trigger them
- The renewal of the population itself over the chosen horizon
04 — POPULATIONS CONCERNED
Populations concerned.
- Populations engaged early, whose attention declines
- Wait-and-see populations, decisive in the medium term
- Populations carrying the memory of an earlier conflict
- New entrants appearing along the simulated horizon
05 — MECHANISMS TO OBSERVE
Mechanisms to observe.
- Gradual adoption and erosion
- Signal events and cascades
- Memory of previous episodes
- Change in the composition of the population
- Threshold effects and tipping points
06 — EXAMPLE QUESTIONS TO TEST
Questions to test.
- “Where are we in two years if nothing changes?”
- “Which event can tip the trajectory?”
- “Which population crosses the threshold first?”
These formulations are examples of testable decisions. They do not report on any executed simulation.
07 — REAL CASE STUDIES
Decisions already tested.
- HEALTHCAREHow do you restore ROR vaccination coverage in lagging areas without triggering national polarization?2.4M parents · 18 hesitation typologies · 24 months
- ENERGY & UTILITIES“How can a 500 MW offshore wind farm be developed off a tourist coast without triggering local opposition that delays the project for five years?”6 siting strategies tested with local stakeholders
- PUBLIC POLICYHow do you introduce progressive carbon taxation on fuel without triggering another social crisis?8.2M French workers · multi-year trajectory
- URBAN PLANNING & MOBILITY“How can a new mixed-use district be designed on a brownfield site so that social mix endures over 10 years?”1.4M residents and workers · 18 profiles · 120 months
- PUBLIC POLICY“Anticipate adoption of a shared-mobility plan in low-density areas over 5 years.”2.4M rural workers · 60 months of trajectories
- ENERGY & UTILITIES“How can the planned closure of a thermal power plant be managed in its host territory?”1.1M residents and workers in the employment area · 14 profiles · 60 months
08 — HOW IMAGINE ALL THE PEOPLE SIMULATES
The method applied to this decision.
- Defining an explicit horizon, consistent with the decision being tested.
- Projecting the population over that horizon, including its renewal.
- Injecting signal events and observing the cascades.
- Identifying tipping points and alternative trajectories.
Explore another decision
- LaunchTest what will drive adoption — or rejection — of something new.
- PriceUnderstand what a price change actually transforms in people's behaviour.
- RepositionChange perception without destroying the value that was already there.
- TransformChange an existing system without triggering the side effects that cancel out the expected benefit.
- ReformTest a new rule on the populations that will actually have to live with it.
- ArbitrateCompare several possible futures before making a decision that is hard to reverse.
- ReactTest a response when time, trust and cascading reactions become critical.
Your next decision
Which decision do you want to explore?
Describe your need. We can point you to the right level of support.
